On 20 April, the Market Early Warning Expert Committee, together with the Department of Market and Informatization of the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), released the China Agricultural Outlook Report 2025–2034 at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) in Beijing. The report provides forecasts on production, consumption, trade, and price trends for 20 major agricultural products in China over the coming decade.
Key figures for 2024
According to the report, grain production in 2024 reached 706.5 million tons, while consumption totaled 822 million tons, translating to 500 kg of annual per capita consumption.
Grain imports in 2024 stood at 158 million tons, including:
- 105 million tons of soybeans
- 13.6 million tons of corn
- 11.1 million tons of wheat
Forecasts for grain production and grain imports
The report forecasts that China’s grain production will reach 709 million tons, 730 million tons, and 752 million tons in 2025, 2029, and 2034, respectively.
It also forecasts that China’s grain imports will decline to 138 million tons, 121 million tons, and 113 million tons in 2025, 2029, and 2034, respectively.
Productivity forecast
The report predicts significant breakthroughs in agricultural productivity, with an overall improvement in food supply capacity, quality, and competitiveness.
By 2034, grain yields are expected to rise by 7.8%, reaching 6.3 tons per hectare in 2034.
By 2034, the grain planting area is expected to stabilize at 119 million hectares, with
- wheat areas remaining stable
- rice and corn areas decreasing
- soybean areas continuing to expand
The rapid development of agricultural technology and the introduction of high-yield, drought-resistant grain varieties will further boost China’s agricultural productivity and the self-sufficiency rate in grains to 90.5%.
Future imports
The outlook predicts that China’s agri-food imports will decline and become more diversified as countries in South America and the “Belt-Road Initiative” will contribute a bigger share to China’s imports.
Soybean imports—the country’s most important import commodity—will fall to 97 million tons, 85 million tons, and 79 million tons in 2025, 2029, and 2034, respectively.
Risk factors
The outlook cites global trade tensions, uncertainty in commodity markets, and climate change induced weather disasters as major risk factors to its projections.
Assessment
Overall, the Outlook offers a largely positive projection, closely aligning with China’s policy emphasis on food security and increasing self-sufficiency.
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