China agricultural outlook 2026-2035

This study provides a summary and critical analysis of China’s Agricultural Outlook Report 2026–2035. The Outlook projects continued growth in agricultural production, moderate consumption growth, and declining import dependence, reflecting China’s food security and agricultural modernization strategy. Grain production is expected to increase from 715 million tons in 2025 to 753 million tons by 2035, driven by higher yields, improved seed varieties, high-standard farmland, mechanization, irrigation, digitalization, and biotechnology. Despite higher domestic output, soybeans will remain China’s largest import dependency, with imports projected at 82.5 million tons in 2035. Meat consumption is expected to remain broadly stable, while production shifts toward less pork and more beef and dairy. However, slower economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and other uncertainties mean the Outlook should be interpreted as a policy-oriented scenario rather than a precise market forecast.