On 20 April 2026, China released the China Agricultural Outlook Report (2026–2035) at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) in Beijing. The report, prepared by the Market Analysis and Early Warning Team under the guidance of the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA), provides detailed projections for agricultural production, consumption, and trade.
Short-term outlook
For 2026, total grain output is projected to reach 716 million tons, while oilseed production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, representing year-on-year increases of 0.2% and 2.6%, respectively. Vegetable oil consumption is expected to decline slightly by 0.2%, while soybean food consumption and dairy consumption are both projected to increase by 0.6%.
Imports of key commodities are expected to decline, with soybeans, pork, beef, and dairy imports projected to decrease by 6.1%, 8.2%, 3.9%, and 4.1%, respectively. At the same time, exports of vegetables, fruits, and aquatic products are expected to increase by 6.4%, 5.0%, and 3.9%.
Long-term projections
Looking ahead, grain output is projected to reach 733 million tons in 2030 and increase further to 753 million tons by 2035, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 0.7% and aligning with targets under the 15th Five-Year Plan. Grain consumption is expected to grow gradually, peaking at 842 million tons in 2032 before declining thereafter.
In the livestock sector, poultry, beef, and mutton production are projected to grow at average annual rates of 2.3%, 0.6%, and 0.8%, respectively, while pork production is expected to decline by 0.5% annually. Overall meat consumption is expected to increase slightly, with pork consumption declining by 0.7% per year and poultry consumption rising by 1.9% annually. Dairy output is projected to reach 45.07 million tons in 2030 and increase further to 51.17 million tons by 2035, corresponding to an average annual growth rate of 2.0%.
At a glance: outlook for 2026
Production
- — Grain: 716 million tons (+0.2% y-o-y)
- — Oilseeds: 42.04 million tons (+2.6% y-o-y)
Consumption
- — Vegetable oil: –0.2% y-o-y
- — Soybean food use: +0.6% y-o-y
- — Dairy consumption: +0.6% y-o-y
Trade
- Imports (declining):
- — Soybeans: –6.1%
- — Pork: –8.2%
- — Beef: –3.9%
- — Dairy: –4.1%
- Exports (increasing):
- — Vegetables: +6.4%
- — Fruits: +5.0%
- — Aquatic products: +3.9%
At a glace: long-term projections (to 2035)
Grain production
- — 2030: 733 million tons
- — 2035: 753 million tons
- — Average annual growth: 0.7%
- — Consumption peak: 842 million tons in 2032, then gradual decline
Livestock production
- — Poultry: +2.3% annually
- — Beef: +0.6% annually
- — Mutton: +0.8% annually
- — Pork: –0.5% annually
Meat consumption trends
- — Overall: slight increase
- — Pork: –0.7% annually
- — Poultry: +1.9% annually
Dairy production
- — 2030: 45.07 million tons
- — 2035: 51.17 million tons
- — Average annual growth: 2.0%
Source
Science and Technology Daily. 2026. “中国农业展望报告（2026—2035）发布.” April 22, 2026. https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2026-04/22/content_506491.html.
