Study: Iran conflict and China’s food security

The Iran conflict that began in February 2026 has highlighted the vulnerability of global food systems to disruptions in energy, fertilizer, and trade networks. As a major importer of energy and an important player in global agricultural markets, China is affected less by direct food shortages than by rising costs for agricultural inputs and increased market volatility.

This study examines the implications of the first 100 days of the Iran conflict for China’s food security. Drawing on the latest available data from 2026, it analyses the conflict’s impact on global energy and fertilizer supplies, assesses consequences for China’s agricultural production, fertilizer and agro-chemical markets, inflation, and food prices, and evaluates China’s capacity to absorb external shocks through domestic production, strategic reserves, and diversified imports.