On 7 September 2026, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) released the National Crop Production Development Plan for the 15th Five-Year Plan Period. The plan is oriented toward food security, higher production capacity, yield improvement, better seeds, mechanization, and green production. By 2030 it aims to raise overall grain production capacity, maintain basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute security of staple grains, and strengthen capacity for soybeans, oilseeds, cotton, and sugar crops.
Key goals and indicators to 2030
The plan emphasizes a shift from expanding output toward both quantity and quality, with most future growth expected to come from higher yields rather than larger planted area.
Major indicators for high-quality crop-sector development during the 15th Five-Year Plan
Indicator | 2025 | 2030 target | Interpretation |
Comprehensive grain production capacity | 695 million tons | 725 million tons | Rises from 695 to around 725 million tons |
Oilseed production | 38.4 million tons | Around 39 million tons | Rises from 38.4 to around 39 million tons |
Cotton production | 6.03 million tons | Around 6 million tons | Broadly stable at around 6 million tons |
Sugar-crop production | 110 million tons | Around 110 million tons | Broadly stable |
Vegetable production | 830 million tons | Above 800 million tons | Maintains very high production |
Fruit production | 330 million tons | Above 300 million tons | Maintains high production |
Green prevention and control coverage for major crop pests and diseases | 59.2% | 65% | Up 5.8 percentage points |
Professional pest-control coverage for the three major grain crops (rice, wheat, and corn) | 50.8% | 55% | Up 4.2 percentage points |
Fertilizer utilization efficiency for the three major grain crops | 43.3% | 45% | Up 1.7 percentage points |
Rice: stabilize area and improve quality
For rice, the objective is to stabilize planted area, optimize the varietal structure, and develop higher-quality eating rice. Northeast China should irrigate more paddy fields with surface water, reduce groundwater-irrigated rice, and develop high-quality long-grain japonica rice. The middle and lower Yangtze should stabilize double-cropping rice, improve the quality of early, middle, and late rice, promote centralized seedling raising and mechanical transplanting, and limit direct seeding. Southwest China should develop ratoon rice where conditions allow, and South China should stabilize double-season rice and expand high-quality indica varieties.
Wheat: stable area, with yield improvement as the main source of growth
For wheat, the plan calls for stabilizing the winter wheat area and raising yield per unit area, together with more specialized, high-quality varieties. The Huang-Huai-Hai River region is to prioritize strong- and medium-gluten wheat and varieties resistant to pre-harvest sprouting, dry hot winds, and other stresses, combined with water-efficient cultivation and high-performance seeding machinery. The middle and lower Yangtze should focus on weak- and medium-gluten wheat resistant to Fusarium head blight, while Southwest and Northwest China stabilize acreage and improve disease resistance, planting quality, and dryland productivity.
Corn: stronger emphasis on yield potential and intensive technology
The corn strategy is framed as raising corn production capacity (提升玉米产能). The plan calls for coordinated development of grain, fresh, and silage corn and emphasizes integrated water and fertilizer management, higher planting density, and the exploitation of yield potential. Northeast China is to keep acreage stable while promoting improved rotation, deep and conservation tillage, high-performance planters, and dense planting. The Huang-Huai-Hai River region should breed for heat tolerance and stalk-rot resistance and improve grain drying capacity, Northwest China should save water, and Southwest China should develop compact, lodging-resistant varieties and promote corn-soybean intercropping.
Soybean: strategically important production expansion
The plan continues the National Soybean and Oilseed Production Capacity Enhancement Program, drawing on multiple oilseed sources and raising yields per unit area to increase the domestic supply of edible vegetable oil. For soybeans it calls for consolidating earlier acreage gains, stabilizing planted area, improving rotations, and concentrating on yield. It distinguishes food-use soybeans, soybeans for oil crushing, and genetically modified (GM) soybeans where local conditions allow. Northeast China should balance high-oil/high-yield and high-protein/high-yield varieties and integrate seed coating, dense planting, and water and fertilizer technologies. The Huang-Huai-Hai River region is to stabilize mono-cropped and strip-intercropping systems and expand machinery, and Southern China should expand strip intercropping, including in young orchards. The plan sets no separate soybean tonnage target for 2030; soybeans fall under the broader oilseed target of approximately 39 million tons.
Crop seeds and breeding: a major strategic priority
The plan calls for exploiting superior germplasm and developing breakthrough varieties tailored to China’s production problems. Breeding priorities include wheat resistant to Fusarium head blight; rice resistant to rice planthoppers; corn tolerant of high planting density and suitable for mechanized harvesting; high-oil, high-yield soybean; short-growing-season rapeseed; higher-quality cotton; high-yield, high-sugar sugar crops for mechanized harvesting; greenhouse vegetable varieties; and fruit and vegetable varieties with improved flavor.
For the four major grain crops, the plan gives a clear breeding direction:
Crop | Priority seed and breeding characteristics |
Wheat | Fusarium head blight resistance, higher yield, quality, and stress resistance |
Rice | Planthopper resistance, quality improvement, and suitability for mechanized cultivation |
Corn | High-density tolerance, suitability for mechanized harvesting, and stress and disease resistance |
Soybean | High-oil and high-yield varieties, high-protein varieties for some production regions, and mechanization compatibility |
The seed sector is thus treated not merely as an input supplier but as a principal technology for raising grain productivity.
Yield growth is more important than simply expanding land
One of the clearest strategic messages is the emphasis on large-scale yield-improvement programs for grain and oil crops. The plan names rice, wheat, corn, soybean, rapeseed, and other oil crops as targets and calls for selecting priority cities and counties and improving technical models, agronomic systems, and supporting infrastructure. For corn and soybean it proposes a dedicated yield improvement project built on high-standard farmland, irrigation, intelligent water control, integrated water and fertilizer technology, and high-density production systems.
Grain trade
The document is a domestic crop-production and food-security plan rather than a trade plan. Its 2030 goal is basic self-sufficiency in cereals and absolute security in staple grains, with stronger domestic capacity for soybeans and oilseeds.
For rice and wheat, this means a very high degree of domestic supply security rather than reliance on international markets. For corn, the strategy is higher domestic capacity and yields through seed, machinery, dense planting, irrigation, and agronomy. For soybeans, stabilizing domestic capacity, high-oil varieties, higher yields, and GM soybeans where appropriate point toward less exposure to import dependence. The plan sets no soybean-import reduction target and expresses no numerical trade objective.
Overall assessment
China intends to achieve its next increment of grain security primarily through productivity growth rather than acreage expansion. The headline grain production-capacity target rises from roughly 695 to around 725 million tons by 2030, while wheat and rice areas stay broadly stable and corn and soybean productivity is strengthened through better varieties, denser planting, precision irrigation and fertilization, and mechanization. Seed breeding is elevated to a core production technology, while grain-import and trade quantities are left to other policy frameworks.
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