In April 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) published its annual outlook on the development of agricultural production, consumption, and trade in China. The report uses a complex statistical model to make projections on future yields, output, and prices for a variety of agricultural commodities – from grains to meat and dairy.
How do these figures compare to the projections of other international institutions and what are their implications for China’s domestic food security, the natural environment, and global agricultural trade? This study provides a critical assessment of the projections published in the outlook report and discusses them against the background of China’s agricultural modernization strategy and shifting consumption patterns.
Author: Aihemaitijiang (Ahmatjan) Rouzi (DCZ)
