The Market Early Warning Expert Committee and the Department of Market and Informatization of the Chinese Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Affairs (MARA) published the 2024-2033 China Agricultural Outlook Report on 20 April with an unveiling conference at the campus of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) in Beijing. This comprehensive report (in the following referred to as the Outlook) offers a detailed overview of the agricultural landscape in 2023, along with projections for production, consumption, and trade spanning 2024-2033. The research team responsible for these projections utilized the CAMES (China Agricultural Monitoring and Early Warning System) model. Below are the key projections highlighted in the report.
1. Overall situation in 2023
1.1 Grains in 2023
In 2023, China’s total sown cropland area amounted to 119 million hectares. Total grain production reached 695 million tons, marking a 1.3% increase compared to the previous year. This comprised 146 million tons from the summer harvest, 28.3 million tons from the early rice harvest, and 521 million tons from the fall harvest.
Overall coarse grain production in 2023 reached 641 million tons, showing a 1.4% increase. However, the rice harvest declined by 0.9% to 207 million tons, and the wheat harvest decreased by 0.8% to 137 million tons, attributed to heavy rains in Henan and early droughts in southwestern China. Corn production rose to 289 million tons, a 4.2% increase, while soybean production reached an all-time high of 20.8 million tons.
Grain consumption in 2023 totaled 817 million tons, reflecting a 1.7% increase. Wheat consumption rose by 7.7% to 148 million tons, largely due to some cheaper wheat being used as feed. Corn consumption increased by 2.9% to 296 million tons, soybean consumption rose by 2.5% to 111 million tons, whereas rice consumption declined by 5.5% to 201 million tons. This is attributed to a decline in rice usage as feed, while human consumption of rice remained stable.
Grain imports in 2023 rose by 11% to 163 million tons, constituting 20% of total consumption. Soybean, corn, wheat, barley, sorghum, and rice comprised 61%, 16.6%, 7.4%, 6.9%, 3.2%, and 2.3% of imports respectively. Brazil, USA, Australia, and Canada remained the top four import origins. Chinese grain exports declined by 20% to 3.3 million tons. Soybean imports increased by 11% to 99.4 million tons, with Brazil and the USA being the top sources. Corn imports rose by 31% to 99.4 million tons, with Brazil, USA, and Ukraine being the top three sources.
1.2 Meat and poultry in 2023
In 2023, overall meat production reached 97 million tons, reflecting a 4.5% increase. Concurrently, overall meat consumption rose to 102 million tons, marking a 4.1% increase. Meat imports experienced a slight decline, reaching 6 million tons, representing a 1% decrease.
Specifically, pork production in 2023 amounted to 57 million tons, while pork consumption reached 59 million tons, showing a 4% increase. Pork imports decreased slightly to 1.55 million tons, down by 1%.
Beef production in 2023 stood at 7.5 million tons, with beef consumption reaching 10.2 million tons, showing a 4% increase. Beef imports declined to 2.7 million tons, a 1% decrease.
Poultry production in 2023 totaled 25.6 million tons, while poultry consumption reached 26.2 million tons, marking a 4% increase. Poultry imports experienced a slight decrease to 1.3 million tons, down by 0.6%.
2. Projections for grains 2024-2033
2.1 Overall grains situation
The Outlook indicates that the planted grain area in China will remain stable at 119 million ha through 2024, 2028, and 2033, reflecting an overall marginal increase of 0.1%. According to the CAMES model, grain production in China is projected to reach 704, 738, and 766 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. This suggests an annual output increase of 1.1% and an overall growth of 11%.
The CAMES model also forecasts that overall grain consumption will reach 803, 817, and 840 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, indicating a modest annual increase of 0.3% and an overall rise of 2.8%. However, the consumption of animal feed grain is expected to reach 232, 234, and 239 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, representing a 4% overall increase, albeit smaller than previous projections.
Furthermore, the Outlook suggests a decrease in overall grain trade during the 2024-2033 period. Grain imports in China are anticipated to decline to 141, 116, and 110 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, marking a substantial 30% decrease compared to other projections such as those by USDA and FAO.
2.2 Projections for individual crops
The Outlook forecasts that rice production in China will increase to 207, 212, and 216 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, indicating an annual growth of 0.4%. Overall rice consumption is projected to be 199, 200, and 206 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, representing a 1.6% decrease from 2023. Additionally, rice imports are expected to decline to 2.8, 3.07, and 3.25 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, suggesting an overall decrease of 29%.
Wheat production in China is predicted to rise to 138, 144, and 146 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, with an annual increase of 0.6%. Overall wheat consumption is projected to be 137, 139, and 141 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, indicating a slight decrease of 0.4% from 2023. Wheat imports are forecasted to decline to 9.1, 6.4, and 4.8 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, suggesting an overall decrease of 24%.
Corn production in China is expected to rise to 296, 309, and 323 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, implying an annual increase of 2.3%. Overall corn consumption is projected to be 297, 308, and 321 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, with an annual increase of 1.1%. Corn imports are anticipated to decline to 17, 7.1, and 6.8 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, suggesting an overall decrease of 73%.
Soybean production in China is forecasted to rise to 21.5, 29.4, and 35.6 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, indicating an overall increase of 50%. Overall soybean consumption is projected to be 110, 112, and 113 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, with an annual increase of 0.3%. Soybean imports are expected to decline to 91, 81, and 79 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively, suggesting an overall decrease of 20%.
3. Projections for meat and poultry 2024-2033
3.1 Overall projections
The Outlook projects that total meat production in China will increase to 96.7, 97, and 97 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Meat consumption is expected to increase, reaching 101, 102, and 102.5 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Total meat imports are projected to stand at 6.06, 5.92, and 5.84 million tons in 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively.
3.2 Projections for different types of meat and poultry
The Outlook projects that total pork production in China will increase to 56.9, 55.2, and 53.8 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively with overall decrease of 2.8 %. Pork consumption is expected to increase, reaching 58.3, 56.3, and 54.7 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Total pork imports are projected to stand at 1.55, 1.19, and 1.07 million tons in 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively.
The Outlook projects that total beef production in China will increase to 7.6, 7.8, and 7.9 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Beef consumption is expected to increase, reaching 10.4, 10.8, and 11 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Total beef imports are projected to stand at 2.79, 2.96, and 3.12 million tons in 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively.
The Outlook projects that total poultry production in China will increase to 25.8, 27.4, and 29 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033 respectively. Poultry consumption is expected to increase, reaching 26.3, 27.9, and 29.3 million tons by 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively. Total poultry imports are projected to stand at 1.25, 1.21, and 1.05 million tons in 2024, 2028, and 2033, respectively.
4. Assessment of the Outlook
Overall, the projections in the Outlook are largely positive and closely aligned with the government’s narrative about food security and self-sufficiency goals. However, past inaccuracies in CAMES projections raise concerns. For instance, last year’s projections anticipated soybean imports to decline to 93 million tons in 2023, whereas the actual figure rose to 99.4 million tons. In contrast, FAO and USDA agricultural projections were slightly less optimistic about Chinese agricultural production and predicted solid growth for agricultural imports, both of which proved to be more accurate than CAMES.
Notably, both USDA and Reuters have highlighted disparities between the reported volume of soybean imports at Chinese ports and data from exporting countries such as Brazil and the USA. This underscores the need for enhanced data transparency to improve the accuracy and reliability of CAMES model predictions.
5. Sources
MARA (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China), 2024. China Agricultural Outlook Report. Chinese Agriculture Technology Press, Beijing, China. (in Chinese)
Polansek, Tom, 2024. U.S. switches method to estimate China’s soy imports after data gap. In Reuters 03/14/2024. Available online at https://www.agriculture.com/u-s-switches-method-to-estimate-china-s-soy-imports-after-data-gap-8609440, last accessed on 04/29/2024.
Rouzi, Ahmatjan, 2023. 2023-2032 China agricultural outlook analysis. Sino-German Agricultural Centre (DCZ). Available online at https://www.dcz-china.org/2023/06/28/study-chinas-ag-outlook-2023-2032/, last accessed on 04/29/2024.
USDA, 2024. USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033. Available online at https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/USDA-Agricultural-Projections-to-2033.pdf, last accessed on 04/29/2024.
